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Benchmark electricity prices to be lowered in 2017; grid parity for photovoltaic power is imminent
Release time:
2016-12-06
It is understood that the benchmark on-grid electricity price for photovoltaic power generation in 2017 is about to be released, with prices for Class I, II, and III resource zones set at 0.6/0.7/0.8 yuan/kWh respectively. The official announcement will be made shortly. In a previous notice, dated September 29th, the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) issued the "Notice on Adjusting the Benchmark Electricity Price for New Energy Sources (Draft for Comments)", proposing to lower the on-grid electricity prices for Class I, II, and III large resource zone ground power stations from 0.80 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 0.98 yuan to 0.55 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively. This has caused significant ripples in the industry.
It is understood that the 2017 photovoltaic benchmark on-grid electricity price is about to be released, with prices in the first, second, and third-class resource zones set at 0.6/0.7/0.8/kWh, and will be officially issued soon. On September 29, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on Adjusting New Energy Benchmark Electricity Prices (Draft for Comments)", proposing to reduce the on-grid electricity prices for photovoltaic power stations in Class I, II, and III large resource areas from 0.80 yuan, 0.88 yuan, and 0.98 yuan to 0.55 yuan, 0.65 yuan, and 0.75 yuan respectively, causing a shock in the industry. Industry insiders believe that if the reduction is too large or a cliff-like reduction will harm the photovoltaic industry. As for this Price adjustment, it is basically in line with expectations: it will not starve the industry, but there will not be high profits either.
In fact, the decline in electricity Price is a general trend. After entering the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period, with the continuous reduction of photovoltaic electricity Price subsidies, photovoltaic enterprises must further reduce costs and improve efficiency, and cost reduction must be based on technological research and development and technological innovation to achieve grid parity.
In recent years, the photovoltaic industry has made many efforts to reduce costs. In particular, the photovoltaic "Leader" program implemented by the National Energy Administration aims to encourage technological innovation and achieve cost reduction. Products from technologically innovative enterprises are given a dedicated market, allowing these enterprises to focus more on the research and development of the most advanced technological equipment and production processes, rather than adding cost reduction to past ordinary products, hoping that manufacturing enterprises will focus their efforts on the most technologically advanced production capacity.
Therefore, on the one hand, it has promoted the development of photovoltaics towards high efficiency and high quality, further eliminating backward production capacity; on the other hand, photovoltaic enterprises have continuously carried out technological innovation, reducing costs.
At present, the scale advantages and technological advantages of the photovoltaic industry have laid a good foundation for the continuous acceleration of photovoltaic technological progress, and in the future, photovoltaics will also need to be integrated with other technologies to stimulate more efficient and low-cost technological approaches.
Some experts also pointed out that the photovoltaic industry experienced a relative recovery in 2014-2015, and domestic leading photovoltaic production and manufacturing enterprises concentrated on expanding production capacity. This not only intensified the competition in the current photovoltaic market, but also became an important reason for the rapid decline in photovoltaic product and Bidding Prices.
According to statistics from relevant departments, through technological innovation and scale development, the Price of photovoltaic components in China has dropped from nearly 50 yuan per watt ten years ago to about 4 yuan per watt; the Price of photovoltaic inverters has dropped from about 2 yuan per watt ten years ago to about 20 cents; the Price of the entire photovoltaic system has dropped from about 60 yuan per watt ten years ago to 7 yuan per watt now, and the corresponding photovoltaic electricity Price has dropped by 76%.
Liang Zhipeng, deputy director of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, once said that the cost of photovoltaic power generation should decline significantly by 2020, and photovoltaic power generation can fully achieve grid parity by 2025.
"The replacement of traditional energy by new energy ultimately depends on economic efficiency and competitiveness, and cannot always rely on policy support and become a greenhouse flower." Li Ye, the supervisory director of the National Energy Administration, said that China's new energy equipment manufacturing technology and capabilities have reached a high level, and the large-scale development and technological innovation of photovoltaics, wind power, and energy storage have significantly reduced the cost of new energy development and further improved the market competitiveness of new energy.
For the photovoltaic industry, to achieve grid parity, only by continuously reducing component costs and continuously improving technological efficiency can the Price of the photovoltaic industry be truly changed, because the on-grid electricity Price ultimately determines the fate of photovoltaics.
In addition, with the development of the global economy, energy crises and environmental pollution are increasingly attracting attention, and new energy, represented by photovoltaic power generation, is playing an increasingly important role in the energy system. Studies show that renewable energy will become the mainstay of the power system from 2030 onwards. On November 7, the National Energy Administration mentioned in the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" for Power Development that by 2020, China's solar power generation capacity will reach 110 GW, including 5 GW of concentrated solar power and more than 60 GW of distributed photovoltaics, which undoubtedly brings new vitality and opportunities to the development of the photovoltaic industry.
In addition, we should understand grid parity from two aspects, not only focusing on centralized power generation, but also seeing distributed power generation. Currently, the general Price of industrial electricity on the sales side is 0.7-0.8 yuan/kWh, and some are even higher. If, under distributed conditions, photovoltaic power generation can reach 0.6 yuan/kWh, it means that grid parity has been achieved.
The industry predicts that the decline in national subsidies for photovoltaics is so rapid that grid parity on the user side is imminent, and grid parity on the generation side is expected to be achieved by the end of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period.
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