News
News
Three Mysteries Brought About by the 2016 Photovoltaic "Super-Growth"
Release time:
2017-02-14
In 2016, in addition to the total newly installed capacity significantly exceeding expectations, distributed photovoltaic power generation also achieved relatively rapid development, with a newly installed capacity of 4.24 million kilowatts that year, a 200% increase compared to 2015.
It is no exaggeration to say that the work of the past three or four years was completed in 2016 alone.
In 2016, in addition to the total newly installed capacity greatly exceeding expectations, distributed photovoltaic power generation also achieved relatively rapid development, with a newly installed capacity of 4.24 million kilowatts that year, a 200% increase compared to 2015.
With the release of the "13th Five-Year Plan" for electricity and photovoltaics, as the "13th Five-Year Plan" truly began to be implemented in 2017, whether the photovoltaic industry can maintain the high speed of 2016, and how to solve the sequelae of "rapid development", including the serious shortage of subsidy funds, are obviously issues that need to be addressed in 2017.
In addition, the "13th Five-Year Plan" focuses on the development of distributed generation; whether the policies on distributed generation will be adjusted is also a matter of concern.
A brief comparison reveals that although distributed photovoltaics are ostensibly the target of policy preference and tilt, in terms of electricity Price subsidy policies, which determine the profitability of power stations, ground power stations are still the real beneficiaries.
Ground power stations enjoy fixed subsidies, which means that regardless of how the desulfurization Price of thermal power changes, it has no relation to them, and their income will not be affected.
In contrast, the Price of distributed generation is composed of different types of desulfurization Prices plus fixed subsidies. This means that the final Price will also fluctuate with the Price of thermal power. Therefore, under the trend of electricity system reform, slowing demand, and Price declines, the profitability of distributed projects will also follow market conditions.
At the "2016 First National Summit Forum on Distributed Photovoltaic Quality Construction", Shi Jingli, a researcher at the National Development and Reform Commission's Energy Research Institute, stated that compared with distributed power stations, the Price adjustment of large ground power stations is relatively slower, thus leading the photovoltaic power generation market towards centralized power stations.
To this end, Shi Jingli suggested that the amount of subsidies should be adjusted according to the type of user. For rooftops such as hotels, subsidies can be completely unnecessary, but for civil building photovoltaics, the current subsidy of 0.42 yuan per kilowatt-hour may not be enough in some areas, so it is suggested that the subsidy policy should be further subdivided.
Continuing the "Eastward Advance, Westward Retreat"
In addition to achieving a staggering 34GW of newly installed capacity, in terms of regional layout, photovoltaic power generation in 2016 continued the "eastward advance, westward retreat" trend of the past two years.
Data shows that among the newly installed photovoltaic power generation capacity nationwide, the Northwest region accounted for 9.74 million kilowatts, or 28% of the national total; the regions outside the Northwest accounted for 24.8 million kilowatts, or 72% of the national total.
Under the effect of "when the big river has water, the small river is full", distributed installation also achieved rapid development, with a newly installed capacity of 4.24 million kilowatts in 2016, a 200% increase compared to 2015.
Data also shows that among several western provinces, Xinjiang, Shaanxi, Ningxia, Inner Mongolia, and Qinghai were among the top in terms of newly installed capacity in 2016. Among them, Qinghai, which had the lowest installed capacity, still exceeded 1GW; Xinjiang, which ranked first, exceeded 3GW; and Shaanxi, which experienced the fastest growth, had a newly installed capacity of 2.17GW.
In terms of cumulative installed capacity, Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Shaanxi are ranked in order. Among them, Gansu, which experienced large-scale power rationing, is noteworthy. In 2016, its newly installed capacity dropped sharply to 760MW, but its total installed capacity still ranked second in the western region.
Among the central, eastern, and southwestern provinces, the most prominent growth was in Henan, Yunnan, and Hubei. These provinces, which were previously almost unheard of on the Chinese photovoltaic map, achieved rapid development in 2016.
It is worth noting that the four municipalities directly under the Central Government are almost all among the slowest-developing regions for photovoltaic power stations. By the end of 2016, in terms of cumulative installed capacity, Beijing was only 240MW; Shanghai 350MW; Tianjin slightly better, at 600MW; and Chongqing at 5MW, almost negligible.
Three Major Uncertainties
The unconventional development in 2016 also left several uncertainties for the photovoltaic power station market in 2017 and beyond. Among them, the following three issues are of most concern.
First, will the momentum of 2016 prematurely deplete the development space in the coming years? Second, where will the electricity Price subsidies come from with 34GW of newly installed capacity? Third, as the target of continuous policy preference and tilt, and the focus of development in the "13th Five-Year Plan", will the existing policy aspects of distributed generation face further adjustments?
Regarding the issue of subsidy funds, Shi Jingli also stated at the "2016 First National Summit Forum on Distributed Photovoltaic Quality Construction" hosted by Solar Power Generation Network that if we consider the fact that wind power can achieve competitive parity with coal-fired power in some regions by 2020, and photovoltaic power generation can achieve grid parity on the sales side at such a Price speed, and if the renewable energy Price surcharge remains unchanged, the demand for subsidy funds in 2020 alone will reach 180 billion yuan, while the incremental subsidy funds will only be 110 billion yuan, resulting in a huge gap of 70 billion yuan that year.
“Therefore, the issue of subsidy funds is not only a challenge for the photovoltaic industry but also for the development of the entire renewable energy industry,” Shi Jingli said.
On the distributed generation side, although policies claim to be tilted towards it, a comparison shows that compared with ground power stations that enjoy fixed subsidies, the profitability of distributed projects will change with the advancement of electricity reform and changes in the electricity market.
Under this logic, once electricity demand slows down and industrial electricity Prices decline or even drop sharply due to the background of maintaining economic growth, the profitability of industrial rooftop distributed photovoltaics, which are dependent on it, will undoubtedly be affected. By analogy, residential rooftops, commercial rooftops, and agricultural distributed generation will all be affected.
Therefore, for 2017, whether the distributed generation Price policy will usher in reform, or whether the Price policy of ground power stations will be reformed to allow both to be on an equal competitive platform, is the biggest attraction in China's photovoltaic application market.
Latest developments
lino power group
Service Hotline: +86-531-88729999
Address: No. 30766, Jingshidong Road, Jinan, China
Group Station Group:
Hongjitang
Linuo Pharma
Keyuan Pharma
Linuo Pharmaceutical Packaging
Linuo Ritter
Linuo Power
Wuhan Youji
Twin Tigers Coatings