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The 2017 photovoltaic target has already deducted 11GW, and the demand for ground-based power stations may slow down.
Release time:
2017-04-07
At the end of December 2016, the National Energy Administration of China opened up applications for additional ground-mounted power plant quotas to qualified local entities. Statistics show that approximately 11GW of applications have been received to date. Since this will directly displace quotas for ground-mounted power plants in 2017, the demand for ground-mounted power plants this year is likely to be affected.
At the end of December 2016, the National Energy Administration of China opened up applications for additional ground-mounted power plant quotas to qualified regions. Statistics show that approximately 11GW of applications have been received to date. Since this will directly displace 2017's ground-mounted power plant quotas, the demand for ground-mounted power plants this year is likely to be affected.
Due to China's photovoltaic market's "first-come, first-served" mechanism, many power plant developers begin construction after registration but before securing quotas, aiming for early completion and securing grid-connection subsidies. A consequence of this mechanism is a large number of power plants without subsidy guarantees, once exceeding 5GW.
Therefore, on December 22, 2016, the National Energy Administration of China issued an urgent notice, opening up applications for ground-mounted power plant subsidy quotas to provinces with a curtailment rate below 5%, with a maximum additional quota of 1GW. The additional capacity will be deducted from the 2017 quotas, and those exceeding 500MW will not receive new quotas in 2017.
With 11GW of quota increase applications, 12 provinces may not receive new quotas in 2017.
Although criticized as "eating into future resources," a total of 14 provinces and regions across China have applied for approximately 11GW of additional photovoltaic power plant quotas: Yunnan (1.056GW), Henan (1.021GW), Shandong (1.001GW), Ningxia (1GW), Hubei (1GW), Hebei (999MW), Hunan (959.57MW), Anhui (500MW), Guizhou (498MW), Qinghai (485MW), Shanxi (480MW), Shaanxi (469.5MW), Zhejiang (386.6MW), Guangdong (<500MW), Guangxi (107MW), Heilongjiang (bonus 200MW).
According to regulations, Yunnan, Henan, Shandong, Ningxia, Hubei, Hebei, and Hunan will not receive new ground-mounted power plant quotas in 2017. Except for Heilongjiang, whose bonus quota is unaffected, other provinces will have their quotas reduced accordingly. Applications for quota increases from Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Qinghai, regions with high curtailment rates, may be rejected.
This policy, coupled with the Chinese government's announcement to suspend new registrations for ground-mounted power plants in the northwest to address the issue of "curtailment of photovoltaic power generation," means that Shaanxi, Gansu, Xinjiang, Ningxia, and Qinghai may also not receive new quotas in 2017. As a result, 12 provinces in China may not receive new power plant quotas in 2017, and the demand for large-scale ground-mounted power plants in the new year is expected to be impacted.
In addition, Jiangsu, Jilin, Liaoning, Sichuan, and Fujian have yet to announce the scale of their quota increase applications. Among the provinces that have applied, only Yunnan, Anhui, and Guizhou have received approval.
2017: Focus on Distributed, Poverty Alleviation, and Leading Runner Projects
Ordinary photovoltaic power plants show signs of decline due to quota allocation strategies, but photovoltaic poverty alleviation, distributed generation, and leading runner projects still have considerable development opportunities. In 2016, in addition to the 18.1GW quota for ordinary photovoltaic power plants, the National Energy Administration added an additional 5.5GW for the leading runner program and 5.16GW for photovoltaic poverty alleviation, while distributed photovoltaic power generation has no upper limit on quotas.
Although the installed capacity demand for photovoltaic power plants is expected to decrease due to quota policies, other types of power plants still have significant development opportunities. For example, the Chinese government has repeatedly emphasized the importance of photovoltaic poverty alleviation measures, and there are continuous rumors of a "super leading runner program" in the market. The goal of installing more than 60GW of distributed photovoltaic power generation by 2020 still leaves ample room for growth.
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