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Government support, expert affirmation, strong brand! The 2018 distributed photovoltaic market continues to be hot!
Release time:
2018-01-17
According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, by the end of November 2017, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 125.79 GW, a year-on-year increase of 67%; newly installed distributed photovoltaic power generation reached 17.23 GW, 3.7 times the newly installed capacity in the same period of 2016, and the growth rate increased threefold year-on-year.
According to statistics released by the National Energy Administration, by the end of November 2017, China's cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation reached 125.79 GW, a year-on-year increase of 67%; newly installed distributed photovoltaic power generation reached 17.23 GW, 3.7 times the newly installed capacity in the same period of 2016, with a year-on-year increase of 3 times.
According to data from the State Grid, the total number of households with rooftop photovoltaic installations was 200,000 at the end of 2016 and exceeded 400,000 in June 2017.
Several major policies predicting the trend of distributed photovoltaic power generation in 2018
China's distributed photovoltaic power generation achieved such remarkable results in 2017 thanks to the strong support of a series of favorable policies! Summarizing and sorting out the policies of the past year, several policy documents have had a significant impact on the distributed photovoltaic industry in 2018:
(1) On October 31, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration jointly issued the "Notice on Conducting Pilot Market Transactions of Distributed Generation"
Analysis: The issuance of the "Notice" allows distributed generation to realize direct electricity trading with users, or entrust power grid enterprises to sell electricity on their behalf, from the previous "full grid connection" and "self-generation and self-use of surplus electricity for a single user". As a result, part of the electricity sales revenue can be transferred to distributed generation project units, so the distributed generation sector will inevitably become an important investment target for distributed power companies.
(2) On November 8, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Opinions on Comprehensively Deepening Price Mechanism Reform"
Analysis: The "Opinions" propose to improve the price mechanism for renewable energy, implement a declining mechanism for benchmark on-grid electricity prices for new energy sources such as wind power and photovoltaic power generation based on technological progress and market supply and demand, and achieve parity between wind power and coal-fired power generation on-grid electricity prices and parity between photovoltaic on-grid electricity prices and grid sales electricity prices by 2020. This will lay the foundation for opening up a new situation for industrial and commercial distributed power generation. In addition, pilot projects for on-site consumption of distributed new energy will be carried out, and the prices of new energy power generation will be determined through market-based Bidding to better improve the price mechanism, thereby reducing the need for additional subsidy funds and promoting the healthy and orderly development of the entire new energy industry chain.
(3) On December 22, 2017, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Notice on the Price Policy for Photovoltaic Power Generation Projects in 2018"
Analysis: Several pieces of information can be derived from the "Notice". First, for distributed photovoltaic power generation projects that are put into operation after January 1, 2018 and adopt the "self-generation and self-use, surplus electricity grid connection" model, the full-electricity subsidy standard will be reduced by 0.05 yuan, that is, the subsidy standard will be adjusted to 0.37 yuan/kWh (including tax). This is more optimistic than the previous industry speculation that the subsidy would be reduced to 0.35 yuan, and it also reflects from the side that the state still encourages the development of distributed photovoltaic projects; second, the full grid-connected electricity price is reduced by 0.1 yuan, and the distributed electricity subsidy is reduced by 0.05 yuan. It can be seen that the income of the "self-generation and self-use" model will relatively increase, further indicating that the state is more inclined to support the "self-generation and self-use" distributed photovoltaic power generation and on-site consumption.
Expert prediction: Local policies tilt towards renewable energy
A new model of distributed power supply is about to be formed
For the 2018 distributed market, Peng Peng, director of the Policy Research Department of the Renewable Energy Special Committee of the China Circular Economy Association, made some predictions at the Second China Photovoltaic Industry Development and Innovation Application Forum. She believes that under the pressure of the national implementation of the photovoltaic subsidy decline mechanism and coal reduction and carbon reduction, local policies will tilt towards renewable energy; the rapid development of rooftop photovoltaic power generation will drive market demand for high-efficiency components; market-based transaction pilots will open up new models of distributed power supply and even be rolled out nationwide; in the face of increasing opportunities for the development and financing of distributed photovoltaic projects, more non-energy enterprises will also Enter this field.
What about photovoltaic income after the subsidy reduction?
People in the photovoltaic industry know that photovoltaic power generation systems can convert solar energy into electricity. The electricity generated can not only meet the user's own needs, but the remaining electricity can also be sold to the state to make money, and enjoy the 20-year subsidy provided by the state, although it is currently reduced to 0.37 yuan/degree.
Saved electricity bill + electricity sales revenue + subsidy revenue = the final revenue brought by the household photovoltaic power station
Electricity bill savings: Generate your own electricity for your own use, without paying electricity bills, which is equivalent to making money.
Subsidy revenue: National subsidy 0.37 yuan/degree + provincial subsidy + municipal subsidy
Electricity sales revenue: Unsold electricity can be sold to the state (the Price can be calculated according to the local benchmark electricity Price of coal-fired desulfurization units, 0.56 yuan/degree)
For example, in Hunan Province, the investment return of a 10-kilowatt household photovoltaic power station is estimated as follows:
Installed capacity: 10 kilowatts (KW)
Area occupied: about 80 square meters
Investment amount: about 80,000-100,000 yuan
Grid connection mode: self-generation and self-use, surplus electricity grid connection
Annual power generation of the system: 11,000-13,000 degrees
System service life: 25 years (the total revenue of customers' self-generation and self-use is over 360,000 yuan)
Annual revenue for customers' self-generation and self-use:
0.638 yuan/degree (second-tier electricity Price) + national subsidy 0.37 yuan/degree + provincial subsidy 0.2 yuan/degree + municipal subsidy 0.1 yuan/degree = 1.308 yuan/degree * 11,000 degrees = 13,011 yuan
Annual revenue for customers with 50% self-generation and self-use and 50% surplus electricity grid connection: 1.308 yuan/degree * 5500 degrees = 7194 yuan + 50% surplus electricity grid connection revenue (electricity bureau purchase Price 0.447 yuan/degree + national subsidy 0.72 yuan/degree) * 5500 degrees = 6418.5 yuan Total: 13612.5 yuan
Cost recovery: Expected to recover the cost in 6 years. (Considering the different sunshine intensity and local subsidies in various places, it usually takes about 6 years to recover the cost)
Annual rate of return: 15%-20% (the recovery value after 25 years accounts for about 10% of the total investment)
Conclusion: 6 years to recover the cost, after recovering the cost, you can use electricity for free and make money.
Therefore, even if the photovoltaic subsidy is reduced, we can earn back the cost of the power station in the first few years, and the remaining ten years will be pure profit, so we can still make a lot of money!
Stable money-making: Choose a reliable household photovoltaic Brand
Favorable policy orientation and good rate of return once again prove that the future household photovoltaic market has great potential!
The urgent increase in demand for household photovoltaic systems has led many photovoltaic brands to enter the market. Whether it's photovoltaic components, inverters, or photovoltaic investment companies, they have all launched their own household brands, attempting to seize market share in the household photovoltaic field.
Brand influence affects product quality, so consumers must be vigilant when choosing household photovoltaic systems to avoid being deceived.
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