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The photovoltaic industry finds "confidence" amidst challenges; 2017 will focus on core technologies and equipment
Release time:
2017-02-22
On February 16, the "Photovoltaic Industry 2016 Development Review and 2017 Trend Outlook Seminar," hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, was held in Beijing. Experts and representatives from industry regulatory authorities and major research institutions reviewed the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2016 in terms of policies, industry, market, technology, and foreign trade, and made predictions for the 2017 trend.
On February 16, the "Photovoltaic Industry 2016 Development Review and 2017 Trend Outlook Seminar," hosted by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, was held in Beijing. Experts from industry regulatory departments and important industry research institutions reviewed the development of the photovoltaic industry in 2016 in terms of policy, industry, market, technology, and foreign trade, and made predictions for the 2017 trend.
According to statistics, in 2016, China's newly installed photovoltaic capacity reached 34.54GW, ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. The scale continued to expand, costs continued to decline, technology repeatedly broke world records, overseas deployment accelerated, production capacity expansion remained strong, and production layout gradually became more reasonable. In 2017, where will the "photovoltaic powerhouse" go, and what are the expectations?
Finding Industry "Confidence" Amidst Difficulties
At the meeting, Wang Bohua, secretary-general of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, pointed out that in 2016, China's photovoltaic industry developed rapidly, with steady growth in industry scale, effective improvement in enterprise capacity utilization, and significant improvement in profitability. From January to December last year, polysilicon production increased by 17.6% year-on-year; silicon wafer production increased by more than 31% year-on-year; battery production increased by more than 19.5% year-on-year; and component production increased by more than 15.7% year-on-year. The industry's technological level has continued to improve, with Chinese companies repeatedly breaking world records, and the industrialization of advanced scientific research results has also accelerated significantly. In addition, under the guidance of the "Belt and Road" strategy and the impact of international trade protection, Chinese photovoltaic companies have accelerated their overseas deployment, and the pace of "going global" has continued to accelerate, with production capacity expansion remaining strong and production layouts becoming increasingly reasonable.
Two major transformations have taken place in the domestic market structure. First, photovoltaic power generation has shifted from the northwestern to the central and eastern regions. New installations in the northwest accounted for 28% of the national total, while those outside the northwest accounted for 72%, with nine provinces in central and eastern China adding more than GW of new installations. On the other hand, photovoltaic power plants are beginning to shift from ground-based power plants to distributed power generation. In 2016, newly installed distributed photovoltaic capacity increased by 200% compared to 2015. After August 2016, the monthly grid-connected capacity of distributed photovoltaic power plants accounted for about 50%, with coastal provinces such as Zhejiang, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong leading the way in new distributed installations.
A major shift has occurred in the share of the international market. In 2016, global new photovoltaic installations totaled approximately 73GW, of which China accounted for 34.54GW, the United States 14.1GW, Japan 8.6GW, Europe 6.9GW, and India 4GW. Emerging markets such as China, the United States, and India are booming. With the establishment of overseas markets, China's exports of silicon wafers and battery cells have increased year-on-year, while component exports have decreased year-on-year. International export markets have shifted to emerging countries such as India and Brazil, and the import price of polysilicon has experienced a rollercoaster-like fluctuation.
In 2016, while China continued to expand its photovoltaic industry on a large scale, problems such as high dependence on subsidy policies continued to emerge. However, the government issued guidelines on photovoltaic scale management and competitive allocation, and activated the industry through competitive bidding mechanisms. Leading-runner bases, photovoltaic poverty alleviation, and distributed power generation played a certain leading and demonstration role, building confidence in the industry.
Focusing on Core Technologies and Equipment
Looking ahead to 2017, the global market will continue to grow, with India, the United States, Japan, and Europe maintaining a certain scale, and emerging markets such as South America and the Middle East growing rapidly. The Chinese market will maintain a good development trend, with huge market development potential.
According to the prediction of the "China Photovoltaic Industry Development Roadmap," the newly installed capacity in 2017 will be about 20-30GW. Xing Yiteng, a researcher at the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, believes that the continuous advancement of the industry's standard system, the continuous promotion of policies such as the "13th Five-Year Plan for Solar Energy Development," the "Renewable Energy Development Plan," the "Paris Agreement," and green certificates, and the continuous breakthroughs of manufacturing enterprises all indicate that China's photovoltaic industry is facing favorable opportunities for further improvement.
However, many severe challenges also objectively exist: firstly, the issue of land use for photovoltaic power plants; secondly, the curtailment of electricity in some provinces; thirdly, the inability of subsidies to meet demand; fourthly, the supply-demand imbalance caused by the rush to install equipment due to electricity price adjustments; and fifthly, the insufficient supply of high-end equipment. To this end, Wang Bohua suggested that we should focus on the leading-runner projects to catalyze the progress of leading technologies such as PERC and black silicon, promote the development of ultra-high-efficiency battery technologies such as N-type double-sided, heterojunction, and half-cut cells, and the large-scale application of new materials such as self-cleaning. At the same time, intelligent manufacturing will accelerate the automation, digitalization, and networking of production, effectively reducing production costs and further consolidating China's manufacturing advantages.
With the implementation of the "Belt and Road" initiative, the pace of "going global" for China's photovoltaic equipment and projects will continue to accelerate. Liu Yujing, an analyst at Bloomberg New Energy Finance, believes that the global photovoltaic market has shown a trend of "decentralization." Against this backdrop, we need a more refined and professional spirit to develop overseas photovoltaic markets.
Wang Bohua said that in 2017, China's photovoltaic industry will focus on technological progress and industrial upgrading. Manufacturing is the foundation of the industry's existence, so more attention will be paid to intelligent manufacturing and attracting high-quality investment.
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