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2017 Photovoltaic Development Mainline: Structural and Layout Adjustments
Release time:
2017-02-08
For the entire large energy industry, adjusting structure and layout will undoubtedly be the main theme for the next few years. Similarly, the photovoltaic industry also faces the issue of needing to adjust its structure and layout, which will become a clear trend in 2017. Specifically, structural adjustment mainly involves the issue of the focus of development between ground power stations and distributed power generation; while layout involves changes in the investment scale of power stations in central and eastern China compared to the west.
For the entire large energy industry, adjusting structure and layout will undoubtedly be the main theme for the next few years.
Similarly, the photovoltaic industry also faces the issue of needing to adjust its structure and layout, which will become a clear trend in 2017.
Specifically, structural adjustment involves the issue of the development focus on ground power stations and distributed generation; while layout involves changes in the investment scale of power stations in the central and eastern regions and the west.
Looking at the series of related plans recently released, such as the "13th Five-Year Plan" for Renewable Energy Development and the "13th Five-Year Plan" for Solar Energy Development, some of the new proposals are worth paying attention to within the industry.
For example, in the "13th Five-Year Plan" for Solar Energy Development, regarding the wording of the development plans for ground power stations and distributed generation, distributed generation corresponds to "promoting distributed photovoltaic and 'photovoltaic' applications," while ground power stations are "optimizing photovoltaic power station layout and innovating construction methods."
Those who have a slight understanding of China's policy discourse system, or those engaged in policy analysis, have a certain awareness of "nitpicking." Obviously, different wordings actually represent different policy orientations.
In addition, some other newer trends in the above-mentioned series of plans are also worth noting.
For example, in terms of distributed generation, it is proposed to prioritize the consumption of distributed photovoltaic power generation, build a technical support system for the grid connection operation of distributed power generation, and organize distributed power trading.
For ground power stations, it is proposed to utilize the already built or under-construction ultra-high voltage power transmission channels in the "three northern" regions to orderly build solar power generation bases, etc.
105GW non-upper limit indicator
According to the "13th Five-Year Plan," by 2020, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power stations will reach 105GW, and the installed capacity of concentrated solar power will reach 5GW. As of 2015, the installed capacity of photovoltaics was 43.18GW, with 15.13GW newly added in 2015.
Based on this, a simple calculation shows that in the five years from 2016 onwards, the average annual increase in photovoltaic power generation will be about 12GW, significantly lower than the 15GW in 2015.
In this regard, at a press conference recently held by the National Energy Administration, Liang Zhipeng, deputy director of the New Energy Department of the National Energy Administration, stated that in terms of the scale of photovoltaic power generation, 105 million kilowatts is not an upper limit, but a guiding development scale. If the market environment for distributed photovoltaic development changes rapidly and progresses well, the construction scale will develop larger. The "13th Five-Year Plan" focuses on promoting technological progress in photovoltaics and accelerating cost reduction, so the efficiency of national subsidy funds should be maximized, not simply expanding the scale.
In addition to the overall scale, another major focus is undoubtedly the layout of projects.
At this press conference, Li Yangzhe, vice director of the National Energy Administration, introduced that during the "13th Five-Year Plan" period, some adjustments have been made to the energy development layout, mainly shifting the layout of wind power and photovoltaics to the central and eastern regions. Specifically, in the newly added solar energy installed capacity, the central and eastern regions account for about 56%, and distributed development and on-site consumption are the main focus.
The dual adjustment of scale and layout reflects the change in the thinking of the National Energy Administration on renewable energy such as photovoltaics, namely that the development focus of solar power generation will focus on strengthening distributed utilization and promoting technological progress, including actively encouraging the promotion of rooftop distributed photovoltaic projects in cities with good industrial and commercial foundations, and clearly requiring orderly construction of large-scale photovoltaic power station projects in western regions on the basis of solving the problem of power curtailment. At the same time, attempts should be made to carry out market-oriented resource allocation, implement the photovoltaic leader plan, and promote the application of advanced photovoltaic technologies and products.
Behind this approach is the background of severe shortage and arrears of subsidy funds. Therefore, striving to achieve grid parity for photovoltaic power generation and getting rid of dependence on government subsidies is undoubtedly still the primary goal of the industry's efforts.
Consumption remains the focus
For photovoltaics, in addition to the need to reduce dependence on subsidies by reducing costs as soon as possible, another challenge remains consumption.
For example, the "13th Five-Year Plan" for Solar Energy Development clearly points out that the power system and power market mechanisms are not suitable for the development of photovoltaic power generation, and the conflict between traditional energy power generation and photovoltaic power generation in competing for the power market is prominent.
Based on this, the above-mentioned plan also provides some relatively new proposals.
In terms of distributed generation, this includes encouraging photovoltaic power generation projects to be built close to power loads, connecting to low- and medium-voltage distribution networks to achieve nearby power consumption; all types of distribution network enterprises should provide services for the grid connection operation of distributed photovoltaic power generation, prioritize the consumption of distributed photovoltaic power generation, and build a technical support system for the grid connection operation of distributed power generation; organize distributed power trading, promote the market-oriented power sales model of distributed photovoltaic power generation projects to power users; and reasonably determine the transmission and distribution prices paid to grid enterprises according to the principle of promoting nearby consumption of distributed photovoltaics.
For ground power stations, it is proposed to establish solar power generation bases in existing or planned ultra-high voltage grids, and explore the use of concentrated solar power to undertake system peak regulation in regions rich in renewable energy resources such as Qinghai, Xinjiang, and Gansu, and study the establishment of large-scale hybrid renewable energy power generation bases that complement solar thermal power generation with photovoltaic power generation, wind power, and pumped hydro storage, providing clean, safe, and stable electricity to the grid and promoting the high-proportion application of renewable energy.
Specifically, in terms of using ultra-high voltage lines to build solar energy bases, there are two main locations:
First, the "three northern" regions, including in areas with good solar energy resources and abundant land resources such as Qinghai and Inner Mongolia, research and demonstrate and build solar power generation bases that complement other renewable energy sources in stages;
Second, in areas rich in hydropower resources in the southwest such as the Jinsha River, Yalong River, and Lancang River, relying on hydropower bases and power transmission channels, research and build large-scale wind-photovoltaic-hydropower complementary power generation bases in stages.
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